I’ve already received calls from New Yorkers melting down after Zorhan Mamdani’s win in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City.
They fear if Mamdani actually becomes mayor, life in the Big Apple will plunge straight into the Gowanus Canal.
Okay, I hear them. But my message to the doomsayers is, take a deep breath…in through your noses and out through your mouths…om, calm, chill.
Yes, Mamdani’s triumph from this past Tuesday is a huge political earthquake.
Yes, it is shocking that an out-and-out socialist won that key election in the cradle of capitalism.
Yes, it is unnerving that the old coalition of black and Jewish New Yorkers was blitzed by Mamdani’s new crew of young progressives and South Asians. From Al Sharpton to the Satmar Rebbe, the old New York powerbrokers were outflanked by a 30-something inexperienced, low-name recognition Muslim state assemblyman, who became a citizen just seven years ago.
It is most disturbing, that given his anti-Israel pronouncements and positions, he won the race in the city with the largest Jewish community in the world. Mamdani refuses to condemn the “globalize the intifada” chant. He refuses to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He says he’d arrest Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu if he sets foot in the five boroughs.
Make no mistake, if he is elected mayor, Mamdani will be Bill de Blasio on steroids. Oh baby!
While some local pols like Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and Jerry Nadler are heaping praise on Mamdani, I am here to offer words of hope, well, at least of restrained optimism, and a path that could prevent him from resting his head in the mayor’s Gracie Mansion bedroom, and it’s actually rooted in reality.
In 2021, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown was shockingly defeated in the Democrat primary by socialist India Walton. She was a rising star on the ultra left. Brown was all but buried as the incumbent, vying for a fifth term. It was Walton’s race to lose.
But in the general election, Brown stormed back, winning with 59% of the votes cast. And those were all write-in votes, to boot.
Well, the New York City incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, won’t have to rely on write-ins to win another term. He will be on the November ballot on at least two lines, “EndAntiSemitism” and “Safe&Affordable.”
That’s a start, but here are some issues Adams will need to overcome.
- Andrew Cuomo, in his infinite conceit, will also run as an independent in November. Even if he doesn’t run an active campaign, he will garner some votes that would have gone to Adams. Shame on Cuomo. His political career is over and his personal legacy is sullied. If he now serves as a spoiler and helps Mamdani win, his name will forever be fango (that’s Italian for mud).
- Curtis Sliwa is running on the Republican line. In the last mayoral election, head to head with Adams, Sliwa got more than 300,000 votes that Adams will desperately need. The GOP needs to replace Sliwa with Adams, but apparently it’s not so simple. Under the rules, Sliwa has to actually leave the state to be removed from the ballot, so some are suggesting that Trump should give him a job in DC. Sliwa says he’s not going anywhere. We’ll have to wait and see how that turns out.
- It is certainly not unprecedented for a Republican to win City Hall. Rudy Giuliani and Mike Bloomberg did it. Both won their races at a time of crisis in the city. Giuliani took over when NYC was out of control and Bloomberg became mayor after 9/11. Is NYC facing that level of crisis under a Mayor Mamdani? The voters will have tell us on Tuesday, November 4th.
- Don’t forget the unaffiliated voters, those New Yorkers not registered with either party, Democrat or Republican. There are about a million. A solid majority of them must vote for Adams. The rub with those voters is nearly half are under 40, right in the Mamdani sweet spot.
- Right now, the city’s business and real estate communities are in full panic mode over a possible Mamdani mayoralty. They will give Adams all the money he needs to blast away at Mamdani and his city-ruining ideas during the four months till election day.
So, there is a road to a possible Adams re-election but it is peppered with New York sized potholes. Adams has lots of negatives of his own; allegations of corruption, disfunction and cronyism, and many Dems believe he’s kowtowing to the Trump administration to escape prosecution. His polling numbers suck.
But in a general election campaign, Mamdani’s vulnerabilities will be amplified as well. Keep in mind, with all the drama around his win on Tuesday, he did not manage to get a majority of the vote.
Between now and November, New Yorker voters across the spectrum, will focus on his impossible-to-enact promises like universal free child care and free bus rides. His proposal to fund these budget busters by taxing billionaires, isn’t real. The mayor doesn’t have the power to create new taxes, that’s a function of the New York State legislature with the approval of Governor Kathy Hochul and she has her own re-election headaches.
If she survives a possible primary challenge by centrist Bronx Congressman Ritchie Torres, she’ll face a withering Republican challenge for re-election from either Elise Stefanik or Brad Lander. Remember, she almost lost her last race to Republican Lee Zeldin, and if she tacks too far to the left to satisfy Mamdani, her political goose will be cooked.
And if a Republican does become governor, she or he will make Mamdani sweat like a construction worker in midtown on a humid August afternoon.
So, to all you New Yorkers who are already booking your one-way tickets to Boca Raton, take a beat. It’s still a long way to November and in politics as in life, it ain’t over till the higher-weight homosapien sings.